Cecil’s latest column on global warming [April 7] is far from “Straight Dope.” The connection between burning fossil fuels and global warming is the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. And atmospheric CO2 has been measured directly for decades. The measurements have gone up. Cecil raises the point that the burning of fossil fuels is a small fraction of the flow of CO2; true, but the question is whether it leads to an important increase.
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Scientists discuss the matter in terms of billions of tons of carbon (since the carbon goes from CO2 to carbohydrates and back during photosynthesis and respiration). About 100 billion tons enter into photosynthesis every year. Fifty billion of those are returned to the atmosphere by plant and animal respiration; the other 50 billion enter into the soil and are returned to the atmosphere later by rotting. One hundred four billion enter the ocean, and 100 billion are returned to the atmosphere.
Frank Palmer
I never said anything about Kyoto “shrinking the U.S. economy.” We didn’t ratify the treaty; it won’t affect us. Kyoto will certainly impose major costs on participating nations, many of which will be able to achieve their reduction goals only by purchasing emissions credits from countries whose economies have shrunk already, namely the former members of the Soviet bloc–meaning the participating nations won’t necessarily be doing much reducing themselves. The EIA notes that “recent analysis has indicated that the cost of achieving domestic reductions in countries such as the United Kingdom may have been underestimated,” and that while Japan may meet its goals, that will be partly because of a shrinking population in later years (in IEO 2005, pages 84 and 85).
